Thoughts On the Newest 2011 Economic Outlook

Thoughts On the Newest 2011 Economic Outlook
By: Nicholas A. Dunlap, CPM

Orange County will lead the Southern California economy out of the recession next year, at least according to an outlook published yesterday by the Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation. Job losses, though down, will continue through the end of the year and firms small to large will generally refrain from hiring through the end of the year unless absolutely necessary. 2011 is officially predicted by UCLA Anderson, CSUF Mihaylo and now: The LAEDC, as a turning point in our recessionary slump. Yes, 2011 is predicted by The LAEDC to welcome the addition of 18,400 jobs, up 1.3% from the previous 3 years. Tourism, manufacturing and infrastructure related jobs will generate the most positions.

For landlords, this could mean an increase in occupancy rates at office, multi-family, industrial and retail properties; as companies grow and need more space and as people begin to earn more money and decide to pair down from doubling up. With these new jobs, unemployment figures will inch downward from 9.5% countywide to 8.3% by year’s end 2011. Will this be a strong enough decline to impact property owners? We shall see.

Of course, none of this growth will occur unless the statewide economic climate is more conducive to owning and operating a business. November will be key in restoring order to the state. Jerry Brown’s track record of destroying and doing away with tax breaks and benefits for businesses is not what California needs now or ever for that matter. Having a business-minded Governor such as Meg Whitman could be all the difference that we Californians need to succeed.

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